(BLP) – As the 2022 midterm elections are quickly approaching, Republicans appear to have a comfortable lead over their Democratic rivals. According to a recently released Rasmussen survey, Republicans hold a nine-point lead in their efforts to retake Congress.
This poll showed that if the elections were held on June 10, 2022, 48% of likely United States voters would pull the lever for the Republican candidate, whereas 39% would vote for the Democrat. Only 4% would vote for another candidate and another 9% are unsure.
For some perspective, in June 2018, before Democrats took back the House, Democrats had a four-point advantage (44% to 40%) in the generic ballot question. Though as the November 2018 midterms rapidly approached, the margin was effectively down to the wire, with Republicans holding a slight advantage of 46% to 45%.
In that case, Democrats won a razor thin House majority while Republicans picked up two Senate seats on net.
The Republican advantage on the congressional ballot is due in large part to greater GOP “partisan intensity” and a 17-point edge among independents. Whereas 86% of Republican voters said they would vote for Republicans in congressional elections, only 78% of Democrats would vote for Democratic candidates in Congressional elections.
Among independent voters, 44% would pull the lever for Republicans and 27% would vote for Democrats. By contrast, 10% would vote for another candidate and 19% are still unsure.
When it comes to race, 55% of whites, 26% of blacks, and 39% of other minorities would vote Republican if congressional elections were held today.
59% of black voters, 34% of whites, and 42% of other minorities indicated they would vote Democrat.
There are significant gaps in the level of support when it comes to different income brackets. Republicans hold the largest advantage — 52% to 34% — among voters who make between $30,000 and $50,000 annually.
The GOP advantage is razor thin (45% to 44%) among individuals earning between $50,000 and $100,000.
While these numbers are good for Republicans, it remains to be seen if the right Republicans — right-wing populists — are elected. We can no longer afford to unconditionally support Republicans. There ultimately needs to be standards set for candidates running for higher office.
The days of Republicans taking their constituencies for granted are over.