Nate Silver, a pollster, raised doubts on Monday about the idea that President Joe Biden stepping down from the presidential race at this moment could provide Democrats with the greatest opportunity to beat former President Donald Trump. Biden’s approval rating reached its lowest point of his presidency on Sunday at 37.4%, as reported by FiveThirtyEight.com. In a post on X, Silver recognized that Biden’s decision to withdraw from the race would pose a significant risk, but he also suggested that continuing to run could potentially be even riskier.
"Trump should drop out too!" is such as weird dunk on people who are pointing out that Biden has big challenges.
Yes, Trump should drop out! I agree! Biden would lose by 7 points, but I agree, the Republican Party and the country would be better served by a different nominee. https://t.co/QZMgcisTIA
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) June 10, 2024
“Biden just hit a new all-time low in approval (37.4%) at 538 yesterday,” Silver posted. “Dropping out would be a big risk. But there’s some threshold below which continuing to run is a bigger risk. Are we there yet? I don’t know. But it’s more than fair to ask.”
“What’s clearer IMO [in my opinion] is that Democrats would have been better served if Biden had decided a year ago not to seek a second term, which would have allowed them to have some semblance of a primary process and give voters a say among the many popular Democrats across the country,” he added.
In May, Silver advised Biden to consider withdrawing from the race if it becomes evident in August that he might face defeat. This timing coincides with the Democratic National Convention scheduled to be held in Chicago.
“If Biden is still struggling in August he needs to consider stepping aside,” Silver posted on X. “It’s not a great situation for Ds either way, but you have to do due diligence on the question. It’s an important election, obviously. It shouldn’t be taboo to talk about.”