According to a prominent strategist at JPMorgan Chase, President Joe Biden is expected to withdraw from the 2024 race before election day. Michael Cembalest, who heads the financial institution’s market and investment strategy unit, believes that Biden, who is 81 years old, will step down due to health concerns sometime between Super Tuesday and the November election. Super Tuesday, which is set for March 5, is a crucial day in the primaries, and the candidate who performs well on this day is typically considered the frontrunner for the party nomination.
Cembalest based his prediction on Biden’s approval rating, particularly highlighting his job creation record since taking office. However, he acknowledged that a significant portion of the job growth was due to Americans returning to work after COVID-related shutdowns. While Cembalest did not speculate on who would replace Biden, he suggested that the Democratic National Committee would select a replacement candidate.
Although Vice President Kamala Harris might seem like a logical choice, she currently faces significant disapproval, even more so than Biden, with a 55-percent disapproval rating according to FiveThirtyEight, a political analysis site.
That said, “Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) and self-help author Marianne Williamson are the only other Democrats who have declared their candidacies,” the New York Post noted.
Cembalest is not the sole individual who has forecasted Biden’s departure from the race — or his shouldering of the responsibility to do so.
In November, David Axelrod, a seasoned Democratic strategist and operative who played a pivotal role in securing two terms for Barack Obama, is practically imploring President Joe Biden to withdraw from the 2024 race.
Axelrod made this plea subsequent to the publication of a New York Times/Siena College poll, which presented overwhelmingly unfavorable news for Biden. The poll revealed that Biden was trailing former President Donald Trump in five out of six crucial swing states, with only a meager 2-point lead over Trump in the sixth battleground state.
“Only Joe Biden can make this decision. If he continues to run, he will be the nominee of the Democratic Party,” Axelrod noted on the X platform. “What he needs to decide is whether that is wise; whether it’s in HIS best interest or the country’s?”
“It’s very late to change horses; a lot will happen in the next year that no one can predict & Biden’s team says his resolve to run is firm. He’s defied CW before but this will send tremors of doubt thru the party–not ‘bed-wetting,’ but legitimate concern,” Axelrod added, citing “conventional wisdom” in another post with a graphic of the polling data.
It's very late to change horses; a lot will happen in the next year that no one can predict & Biden's team says his resolve to run is firm.
He's defied CW before but this will send tremors of doubt thru the party–not "bed-wetting," but legitimate concern. https://t.co/g6zeWF0T87— David Axelrod (@davidaxelrod) November 5, 2023
At that particular moment, Biden found himself behind former President Trump in several key states. The margins varied from four to ten percentage points in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. Biden’s lead was only evident in Wisconsin, albeit by a narrow margin of 2 percentage points. In a collective analysis of these six battleground states, all of which Biden won in the 2020 election, the president is currently trailing with an average of 48 to 44 percent.
Axelrod highlighted the undeniable issue that voters are most concerned about when it comes to Biden.
“The greatest concern is that his biggest liability is the one thing he can’t change. Among all the unpredictables there is one thing that is sure: the age arrow only points in one direction,” he wrote in another X post.
According to the New York Times, the Times/Siena poll highlights a widespread discontent among respondents, who assert that Biden’s policies have had a detrimental effect on them personally. The survey findings shed light on various areas where Biden falls short, with concerns about his age and mental capacity being just the tip of the iceberg. A significant majority of sixty-two percent of respondents expressed the belief that Mr. Biden lacks the essential “mental sharpness” required to effectively lead.